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EDMN Trader — evidence-gated prediction-market research

CI status Python 3.12 Research, paper, and Demo scope

EDMN Trader turns binary prediction-market books into auditable same-market complement-parity evidence: normalize, scan, stress, paper, risk-gate, reconcile, validate.

Important

Public scope is research, paper, and Kalshi Demo. Production endpoints, credentials, and real-money execution are intentionally absent.

EDMN Trader evidence-gated workflow

Core

Layer Contract
Inputs Kalshi Demo read-only data, Polymarket US public data, and local fixtures.
Semantics Canonical Decimal YES-side books and same-market complement candidates.
Stress Explicit fees, slippage, latency, partial fills, and failed-leg reserves.
Controls Source hashes, paper ledger, risk limits, kill switch, and manual approval.
Demo Dry-run previews, a guarded submit boundary, and deterministic reconciliation.
Evidence Daily reports plus a rolling 7/30/90-day validation framework.

Market Contract

implied_yes_ask = 1 - best_no_bid
gross_edge      = best_yes_bid + best_no_bid - 1

These formulas create research candidates, never executable instructions.

Quickstart

python3.12 -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate
python -m pip install -e ".[dev]"
pytest
ruff check .
PYTHONPATH=src python scripts/01_replay_orderbook_fixture.py

Research Stack

EDMN Trader sits beside Equity Factor Research, the factor-research sister project; it is not a runtime dependency. EDMN owns event-market normalization through paper/Demo evidence. Any future real-money system remains a separately reviewed private layer behind the evidence gate.

Safety Boundary

EDMN Trader public and private safety boundary

See Risk Policy, Real-Data Boundary, and Private Live Gate.

Project Records

Specification · Roadmap · Visual overview · Stage ledger · Current handoff

Disclaimer

Research and engineering infrastructure only. Not investment advice, trading advice, a profitability claim, or a production trading system.