feat(analysis): bind simulation method-effect labels to an analysis-run profile

CHANGELOG.md

@@ -38,6 +38,8 @@ All notable changes to TEPP are documented here. The format follows Keep a Chang
 
 ## [Unreleased]
 
+- **Method-effects analysis-run profile**: `analysis_engine` binds existing `tepp_simulation::generate` and `refuse_unavailable_document` to cutoff-safe `method_effects_v1` (`tepp.method_effects.v1`) with inference status `simulation_method_effect_labels_not_estimator_model`. Not an estimator-side method model, not GPU, not MCMC, and not topic birth/split/merge.
+
 - `event_core` adds bounded Allen interval-consistency classification, atomic path-consistency closure, contradiction/resource refusals, and an explicit dependency-error fallback without claiming unrestricted global satisfiability.
 
 - `psychometric_core` recovers the Driver, Oud, and Voelkle (2017, Table 2, p. 12 `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`; §7.1, p. 19; p. 16 `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`; footnote 4; 2017-era ctsem `summary.ctsemFit.R`; JSS PDF re-opened 2026-08-27T14:20Z from https://www.jstatsoft.org/index.php/jss/article/download/v077i05/1104) scalar standardised manifest-trait variance on current main after `0ce16e8` dropped the pre-consolidation code while research notes already named the map (register items 83–84). Table 2 names `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` `Ψ_τ` the additional time-invariant variance-covariance on the measurement level and sets it `NULL` when there is no manifest trait. Equation 5 writes `Γ ~ N(τ, Ψ)` and names that covariance the manifest traits. Section 7.1 names manifest traits stable individual differences in indicator levels, distinct from process-level `TRAITVAR` `φ_ξ`. Page 16 prints standardised matrices with the suffix `std` when appropriate. The printed example on p. 16 is `discreteDRIFTstd`, not `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd`. Footnote 4 standardises using only the relevant variance, not the total. The relevant variance for that named indicator-level correlation is `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`, not process-level `TRAITVAR` and not residual `MANIFESTVAR` `θ`. The 2017-era source forms `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` only when `MANIFESTTRAITVAR != 0`, as `solve(sqrt(diag(MANIFESTTRAITVAR) + ridging)) %&% MANIFESTTRAITVAR` when `verbose = TRUE`. OpenMx `%&%` is `t(A) %*% B %*% A`. Unlike `TRAITVARstd`, that formation adds `diag(c(ridging), n.manifest)`. The default `ridging = FALSE` adds 0, not `0.0001`; that ridge is a numerical hack and is not this exact map. The scalar correlation is `ψ / ψ = 1` after strictly positive `MANIFESTTRAITVAR`. Form strictly positive `ψ` first, then `1 / √ψ`, then `(1 / √ψ) ψ (1 / √ψ)`. Unstandardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is defined for a zero trait; standardised `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` is not. Zero `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` skips forming `MANIFESTTRAITVARstd` in the 2017-era source and fails closed here. Indicator-level trait variance is an event-time structural quantity, so a non-event clock fails closed. `MANIFESTTRAITVAR` does not require stable `a < 0`. Distinct positive `ψ` recover the same 1. `trait / trait = 1` is `TRAITVARstd` and recovers the same number and remains a distinct named quantity. `θ` is `MANIFESTVAR` and is measurement error, not this correlation. Meredith (1993) remains unread (web search 2026-08-27T14:20Z: Springer/Cambridge Core paywalled; Unpaywall historically `is_oa: false`; Springer `content/pdf` is an HTML stub). Mislevy (1991, *Psychometrika, 56*, 177–196) remains unread on the same terms (DOI `10.1007/bf02294457`). Still not a Kalman filter, not a matrix `expm`, not ESEM estimation, not DSEM, and not ctsem estimation.

DOCUMENTATION.md

@@ -71,6 +71,7 @@ TEPP's approved PRD v0.4 and implementation plan are the primary product baselin
 | Hourly NIM OpenCode doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/hourly-nim-opencode-development.md`](docs/doctoring/hourly-nim-opencode-development.md) |
 | Analysis engine v1 doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/analysis-engine-v1.md`](docs/doctoring/analysis-engine-v1.md) |
 | Analysis engine gap-closure doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/analysis-engine-gap-closure.md`](docs/doctoring/analysis-engine-gap-closure.md) |
+| Method-effects analysis-run doctoring | [`docs/doctoring/method-effects-analysis-run.md`](docs/doctoring/method-effects-analysis-run.md) |
 | Corpus-split leakage-audit wire doctoring | [`docs/research/corpus-split-manifest-wire.md`](docs/research/corpus-split-manifest-wire.md) |
 | Unicode canonical-identity doctoring | [`docs/research/unicode-canonical-identity.md`](docs/research/unicode-canonical-identity.md) |
 | Change history | [`CHANGELOG.md`](CHANGELOG.md) |

crates/analysis_engine/Cargo.toml

@@ -20,10 +20,12 @@ serde_json = { workspace = true }
 sha2 = { workspace = true }
 tepp_api = { path = "../tepp_api", version = "0.2.0" }
 temporal_core = { path = "../temporal_core", version = "0.2.0" }
+tepp_simulation = { path = "../tepp_simulation", version = "0.2.0" }
 topic_measurement = { path = "../topic_measurement", version = "0.2.0" }
 uuid.workspace = true
 
 [dev-dependencies]
+tepp_simulation = { path = "../tepp_simulation", version = "0.2.0" }
 corpus_split = { path = "../corpus_split", version = "0.2.0" }
 membership_core = { path = "../membership_core", version = "0.2.0" }
 relation_graph = { path = "../relation_graph", version = "0.2.0" }

crates/analysis_engine/src/lib.rs

@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@
 
 mod case_deletion_refit;
 mod lineage_criterion;
+mod method_effects_artifact;
 mod topic_context_posterior;
 mod topic_lineage_artifact;
 
@@ -46,6 +47,12 @@ pub use lineage_criterion::{
     LineageCriterionFit, LineageCriterionFitError, LineageCriterionObservation,
     fit_lineage_criterion_posteriors,
 };
+/// Method-effect census artifact and execution contracts from this engine.
+pub use method_effects_artifact::{
+    METHOD_EFFECTS_ARTIFACT_BYTE_LIMIT, METHOD_EFFECTS_ARTIFACT_SCHEMA_VERSION,
+    METHOD_EFFECTS_MODEL_CONTRACT_VERSION, METHOD_EFFECTS_OUTPUT_PROFILE, MethodEffectsArtifact,
+    MethodEffectsExecution, execute_method_effects_run,
+};
 /// Bounded posterior topic-context producer contract and record types.
 pub use topic_context_posterior::{
     TOPIC_CONTEXT_POSTERIOR_BYTE_LIMIT, TOPIC_CONTEXT_POSTERIOR_SCHEMA_VERSION,
@@ -248,6 +255,8 @@ pub enum AnalysisEngineError {
     TopicMeasurement(TopicMeasurementError),
     /// A topic-lineage artifact violated its bounded schema or count invariants.
     InvalidTopicLineageArtifact,
+    /// A method-effects artifact violated its bounded schema or count invariants.
+    InvalidMethodEffectsArtifact,
 }
 
 impl fmt::Display for AnalysisEngineError {
@@ -262,6 +271,7 @@ impl fmt::Display for AnalysisEngineError {
             Self::LimitExceeded => "analysis corpus exceeded its execution bound",
             Self::TopicMeasurement(error) => return error.fmt(formatter),
             Self::InvalidTopicLineageArtifact => "invalid topic lineage artifact",
+            Self::InvalidMethodEffectsArtifact => "invalid method-effects artifact",
         };
         formatter.write_str(message)
     }
@@ -681,6 +691,10 @@ mod tests {
                 AnalysisEngineError::InvalidTopicLineageArtifact,
                 "invalid topic lineage artifact",
             ),
+            (
+                AnalysisEngineError::InvalidMethodEffectsArtifact,
+                "invalid method-effects artifact",
+            ),
         ];
         for (error, message) in messages {
             assert_eq!(error.to_string(), message);